【中英文】IIHS对自动驾驶的灵魂拷问,比人更安

2020-07-08 12博手机版 阅读

  近期,一份来自于IIHS(美国高速公路安全保险协会)的一份关于自动驾驶的研究报告,引发热议。里面提到,如果自动驾驶系统与人的驾驶方式相似,那么可能只能避免大约三分之一的交通事故。这与很多人眼中,自动驾驶能避免绝大多数事故,有点不太相符。此前,麦肯锡发布了一份报告,称自动驾驶的全面普及可以减少90%的交通事故,每年减少1900亿美元损害赔偿和医疗费用。

  其实,这份报告主要是提醒自动驾驶技术对于安全性的关注,提到的一些数据都是有前提的。为了避免一些片面解读,本文对IIHS的研究文章进行中英文对照翻译,供大家参考!

  标题:

  Self-driving vehicles could struggle to eliminate most crashes

  自动驾驶汽车很难规避大部分撞车事故

  Will autonomous vehicles be better than humans at predicting, planning and execution?

  自动驾驶汽车在判断、决策和执行方面能比人类做得更好吗?

  Driver mistakes play a role in virtually all crashes. That’s why automation has been held up as a potential game changer for safety. But autonomous vehicles might prevent only around a third of all crashes if automated systems drive too much like people, according to a new study from the Insurance Institute for Highway Safety.

  几乎所有的车祸都有人为失误的影响。这就是为什么大家认为,在安全方面自动化有可能改变这一局面。但是,IIHS的一项最新研究表明,如果自动驾驶系统与人的驾驶方式相似,那么可能只能避免大约三分之一的交通事故。

  “It’s likely that fully self-driving cars will eventually identify hazards better than people, but we found that this alone would not prevent the bulk of crashes,” says Jessica Cicchino, IIHS vice president for research and a coauthor of the study.

  “自动驾驶汽车能比人更快识别出危险,但我们发现,仅凭这一点能避免的撞车事故有限。”IIHS副总裁同时也是该研究的参与者Jessica Ciccino说。

  Conventional thinking has it that self-driving vehicles could one day make crashes a thing of the past. The reality is not that simple. According to a national survey of police-reported crashes, driver error is the final failure in the chain of events leading to more than 9 out of 10 crashes.

  传统观念认为,总有一天,自动驾驶汽车会使撞车事故成为过去式。现实并非如此简单。根据一项针对交通事故的全国性调查,10起交通事故中至少有9起是因为驾驶员的失误。

  But the Institute’s analysis suggests that only about a third of those crashes were the result of mistakes that automated vehicles would be expected to avoid simply because they have more accurate perception than human drivers and aren’t vulnerable to incapacitation. To avoid the other two-thirds, they would need to be specifically programmed to prioritize safety over speed and convenience.

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